Whether President Obama can get negotiations going again between Israel and the Palestinian Authority remains delicately poised at the present time.
Either Israel or the Palestinian Authority has to give way on the total freezing of Jewish building activity in the West Bank for those negotiations to be re-opened after a twelve month postponement.
This will involve a considerable loss of face to the conceding party and some heavy promises will have to be made to that party to induce such a decision.
The vetoing of the Goldstone Report in the Security Council by America and its allies in the Security Council might persuade Israel. The offer to reopen negotiations at the point they ended last year might persuade the Palestinian Authority.
Maybe these options were discussed - among possibly others - at the secretive meeting between President Obama and Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House this week.
The problem the parties still face is - where will the negotiations go even if they are re-opened at last year’s end position?
The offer then by Israel - rejected by the Palestinian Authority - to cede sovereignty in 95% of the West Bank and the excision of an area from Israel equal to the remaining 5% - is not going to be increased.
Indeed Israel could well be justified in not renewing that offer in the light of its invasion of Gaza in January, the subsequent Goldstone Commission Report and the continuing power struggle between Hamas and Fatah that threatens to divide the two separate areas into warring fiefdoms for the hearts and minds of the Arab residents who live in both areas.
If the territorial division of the West Bank cannot be agreed upon then discussion on more difficult issues like refugees, Jerusalem, water and demilitarization will be a complete waste of time.
Any demand to have Israel cede sovereignty in 100% of the West Bank and agree to the creation of exclusive Arab statehood there for the first time in recorded history (whether demilitarized or not) will be rejected by Israel for six main reasons:
- The 1947 UN Partition Plan which had proposed an Arab State and a Jewish State was rejected by the Arabs. Subsequent events have made this proposal extant.
- The Arabs had from 1948-1967 to create such a state when not one Jew lived there and the West Bank was under Jordan’s exclusive occupation - yet they failed to do so.
- 500000 Jews have moved into the West Bank since 1967 pursuant to the legal rights vested in them to settle there pursuant to the League of Nations Mandate for Palestine and the United Nations Charter and removing them from there is now impossible and contrary to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
- Israel would be left with insecure and indefensible boundaries
- The Green Line was never a border - only an armistice line. Jews have a better entitlement in international law than the Arabs to claim sovereignty in the West Bank to reconstitute the Jewish National Home there.
- The West Bank is the biblical heartland of the Jewish people
Arab rejectionism for the last 62 years has come - and must continue to come - at a real price.
The Arabs have had 90 years to mature their views since the small territory of "Palestine" was slated for reconstitution of the Jewish National Home and severed from the other 99.99% of the land freed from the Ottoman Empire by the British and the French and designated for Arab self-determination.
Where to go from here is for Israel and the Palestinian Authority to presently decide.
If these two negotiating parties cannot quickly and decisively agree on the subdivision of the West Bank between them then all further talk by them on any other issues will be useless.
If that occurs and the Arabs still want to maintain negotiations on the future sovereignty of the West Bank and the future of the Arab residents there then another Arab negotiating partner will be needed to replace the Palestinian Authority.
That can only be Jordan.
King Abdullah -
May not be smiling soon
In an interview in the Jordan Times on 13 November, King Abdullah of Jordan was very concerned at the possibility of failure of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations:
King Abdullah: The concern is about the region’s future in general if the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues and tensions continue and the Palestinian people do not gain their rights to liberty and an independent state, and if a comprehensive peace isn’t realised. Because the continuation of the conflict will mean conditions can explode at any time. And this threatens the security and stability of the entire region of which Jordan is a part.
Interviewer: Do you fear a reawakening of the alternative homeland?
King Abdullah: No, the alternative homeland is not part of our dictionary. We do not fear this idea, which unfortunately is raised by sceptics inside Jordan more than others. This issue is non-negotiable. Jordan is able to protect itself and its interests, and we have no fear of the so-called Jordan option or any talk about the alternative homeland. The sole option is the two-state solution which guarantees the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on national Palestinian soil. In addition to that, and in order to respond to other questionable ideas raised by certain circles from time to time, Jordan won’t have any role in the West Bank. We believe that establishing a Palestinian state is not only a Palestinian right but a Jordanian strategic interest and a condition for regional stability. The only role we have had and will continue to have is to help the Palestinians achieve their rights and build their state and institutions.
King Abdullah may well find himself unable to stop the steamroller of international influence and pressure that will descend upon him if Israel and the Palestinian Authority cannot even agree on the division of the West Bank between themselves as a prelude to discussing far more controversial issues that will take real wisdom and genius to resolve.
History has shown that what is said in the Middle East is not what is necessarily said the next day - especially where Jordanian kings and their spokespersons are concerned.
